Discussion about this post

User's avatar
MM's avatar

Something interesting to your point on the portion of demand, petchems and transportation fuels - increasingly petchems making up a larger component of demand, but inventory data very lacking vs. crude and transportation fuels. The result: "days demand is very low". Focus increasingly needs to shift to what crude oil supply demand, ie. Refinery demand, is vs. "oil" supply demand.

Expand full comment
Tian Wen's avatar

Naive question about demand -- I remember reading a few years ago a prediction that aviation would be one of the main sources of increased oil demand. The argument went that the number of passenger miles traveled per year would triple in the coming decades due to increased flying from the new middle class in EM countries, and also there would be a lack of more fuel efficient engines.

Obviously COVID might have permanently reduced demand from flying (e.g. it sure does feel like China might not re-open up years), but otherwise what are your thoughts about that bull argument?

Expand full comment

No posts